Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 18.288847 20.848849 23.605016 26.788941 30.361469 34.242075 38.772263
2025-01-19 13.654476 16.944063 20.760853 25.500877 31.212784 37.856215 46.149873
2025-01-26 12.008222 15.723193 20.241137 26.110297 33.500321 42.460818 54.108999
2025-02-02 10.778489 14.801710 19.902030 26.794393 35.810479 47.142347 62.393071
2025-02-09 9.516611 13.635369 19.052705 26.632399 36.884354 50.178068 68.613448
2025-02-16 8.412452 12.537302 18.150447 26.258848 37.565381 52.647766 74.137333
2025-02-23 7.652862 11.822535 17.674993 26.376704 38.847803 55.910570 80.814741
2025-03-02 7.060117 11.278381 17.371703 26.676558 40.352551 59.502840 88.074600
2025-03-09 6.482202 10.693200 16.945451 26.738452 41.479572 62.577490 94.710953
2025-03-16 5.893666 10.031491 16.341248 26.469907 42.070606 64.871507 100.289486
2025-03-23 5.494799 9.629056 16.091395 26.702891 43.396340 68.267164 107.601545
2025-03-30 5.277094 9.498358 16.248021 27.562984 45.708205 73.215902 117.432622
2025-04-06 4.826937 8.948833 15.706318 27.294484 46.271994 75.591159 123.557750
2025-04-13 4.209305 8.055693 14.532487 25.911475 44.966447 75.000691 125.058932
2025-04-20 4.023546 7.904328 14.584163 26.554523 46.967036 79.668151 134.997110
2025-04-27 3.859690 7.776691 14.663183 27.240853 49.065057 84.574219 145.520501
2025-05-04 3.574943 7.398235 14.271763 27.079165 49.710116 87.132803 152.327629
2025-05-11 3.284376 6.981733 13.778972 26.698970 49.945158 89.006031 158.063075
2025-05-18 3.090002 6.734581 13.575080 26.818936 51.047906 92.363804 166.398711
2025-05-25 2.935550 6.552892 13.478103 27.123283 52.484371 96.337832 175.926942
2025-06-01 2.762669 6.317914 13.261494 27.186159 53.479860 99.583341 184.324454
2025-06-08 2.564237 6.011470 12.883089 26.913489 53.837035 101.716118 190.858048
2025-06-15 2.438510 5.848553 12.774508 27.150045 55.143482 105.567600 200.546476